November 23, 2016

WWS Experts Debate Uncertain Future for Trump Presidency

The three Princeton professors conducting Monday’s panel discussion before a packed house at the Woodrow Wilson School’s Dodds Auditorium found themselves facing a different, far more difficult challenge than the one they had originally prepared for. The future under Donald Trump’s administration is full of uncertainty and extremes of possibilities, they agreed, and each ventured their “best guesses” as to what might happen.

“Where Do We Go From Here? Policy Priorities for the Trump Administration” was the title of the forum, and the answer was a resounding, “we’re not sure.”

“How much will Washington shape Trump? And how much will Trump shape Washington?” asked Brandice Canes-Wrone, professor of Politics and Public Affairs and vice dean of the Woodrow Wilson School.

Commenting on foreign policy and some of the extreme statements Mr. Trump has made on his America-first policy of protectionism and nationalism, Professor of Politics and International Affairs Helen V. Milner observed, “Whether he’s actually going to do these things is a different matter.”

The speakers seemed to agree that there are at least three levels of uncertainty in speculating on what lies ahead: what Mr. Trump says he will do, what he ends up trying to do, and what actually happens amidst the constraints of domestic and international politics.

Ilyana Kuziemko, professor of economics and co-director of the Center for Health and Wellbeing, echoed her colleagues in discussing the future of health care and the Affordable Care Act, which both president-elect Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan have promised to repeal. “It’s one thing to say you’re going to do it,” she said, “and another to actually take away people’s insurance.”

Though the theme of uncertainty prevailed, with occasional notes of optimism, the prevailing tone was pessimistic, and occasionally fearful.

Ms. Milner, who is director of the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance, warned that the early appointments С Michael Flynn as national security advisor and others С indicate that “Trump is going to be militaristic. He’s appointing people who have deep military experience and who are anti-Muslim.” She noted Mr. Trump’s lack of knowledge about foreign affairs and stated, “he’s going to react to the militaristic approach to solve problems. I would not be surprised if in two years we were at war with Iran.”

Ms. Milner also cited “very grave threats to civil liberties,” with less freedom of the press (“he doesn’t like the press when it disagrees with him”). In enumerating some of Mr. Trump’s extreme positions, she mentioned international treaties he disagrees with, his vows to retaliate against Mexico and China, warming up to Russia and Syria, ending the promotion of democracy and human rights, “closing borders, building walls, expelling people, stopping immigration, and terminating climate change agreements.”

Ms. Milner went on to remind the audience of about 200 that Mr. Trump will be “very constrained by domestic politics, Congress, and the press,” and, like all politicians, will be forced to backtrack on campaign promises. She mentioned pressures from corporate America, which is heavily dependent on the global trade network and would not take kindly to trade wars leading to increased unemployment and possible recession. Also, she discussed external constraints from foreign governments and the international pressures to move away from an America-first policy towards a more normal foreign policy.

“I go back and forth between the two extremes,” Ms. Milner said, as she pointed out the relative lack of constraints with “single party government, all Republican, all the time” in the U.S., and the nation as “a superpower, which can suffer through consequences from limited external constraints.”

Observing that Mr. Trump has not yet “fully shifted from reality TV to the presidency,” Ms. Canes-Wrone asked, ”Which Donald Trump will emerge? Will he be more moderate than George W. Bush, or much more to the right?” She noted his protectionist pronouncements in foreign policy, but argued, ”I think we’ll end up seeing something in the middle.“

She acknowledged that he would make changes, but stated that, in response to the voters, “On many issues he will be less extreme than people expect. He will cater to the same voters who elected him, and that in itself will cause some constraint. On other issues he will cede to Ryan and the Republicans.”

Pointing out the “good news” that social security will probably remain intact, Ms. Kuziemko conjectured that health care was the biggest question mark for the new administration. Mr. Trump and the Republican Congress agree that Obamacare should be repealed, but there seem to be no specific proposals for what comes next. “It is not clear what will replace it,” she said.

She continued, ”Medicare is very popular as it currently exists. The elderly and near elderly are the biggest group of Trump supporters. It’s very uncertain which way they’re going to go on health care issues.”

As the president-elect continues preparations for his January inauguration, these issues may or may not become clearer. The Woodrow Wilson School’s “up to the minute” talks — “A Republican Reflects: Ana Navarro, CNN Political Commentator and Republican Strategist” on November 30 and “Supremely Partisan: How Raw Politics Tips the Scales in the United States Supreme Court” on December 6 — will continue to provide expert analysis.