Speculation about the impact of a Trump presidency on international politics continues with seven weeks to go before the president-elect actually takes office. A panel of Princeton University historians, political scientists, anthropologists, and sociologists gathered in Aaron Burr Hall Monday under the auspices of Princeton’s Institute for International and Regional Studies (PIIRS) to discuss how the rest of the world views Mr. Trump and what might be the consequences of a Trump presidency in various parts of the world. 

Since Mr. Trump has never before held elected office and “all we have is what Mr. Trump has said,” according to PIIRS director and politics professor Mark Beissinger, the situation has been ripe for reactions of fear, skepticism, and wide-ranging speculation in the Princeton lecture hall and around the globe since the November 8 election.

“It’s going to be a rough ride,” warned politics professor Christina Davis in striking a repeated theme of the 90 minute session attended by a standing-room-only gathering.

Russia

A widely published writer on the Soviet Union and post-Soviet states, Mr. Beissinger focused his comments on Russia. “There was no country more closely connected to the election,” he said. “Russia was directly involved in the electoral process to try to help Trump win the election. There is no country that benefitted more than Russia from the election.”

Acknowledging that “we’re never going to know the truth” about Mr. Trump’s business dealings and his appointees and their ties to Russia, Mr. Beissinger warned of the impact of the Russian connection in several different spheres of global politics. He cited the possibility of closer U.S. relations with Russian president Vladimir Putin leading to “a common front with Russia in Syria,” recognition of Russian annexation of Crimea, and an undermining of the U.S. commitment to NATO.

“The Trump election may come to be considered the most significant foreign policy success Russia has ever achieved,” Mr. Beissinger commented. He went on to note possible additional effects in the undermining of democracy and encouragement of right-wing extremists, the spread of disarray in the U.S. and Europe, and “widespread panic” in Ukraine.

Mr. Beissinger further noted, “Trump complaints about voter fraud feed into Russian propaganda about all U.S. elections being rigged.”

China

Another country seeing significant opportunity ahead, although less directly involved in the election, is China, according to sociology professor Yu Xie.

“The Chinese state stands to benefit from the election,” he said. He explained that domestically Chinese leaders will use the Trump presidency as evidence to undermine the legitimacy of democracy, seeing it as a dangerous tool promoting uncertainty, the break up of unity, and unpredictable leadership. Any movement towards democracy in China will be slowed down and undermined by the Trump election, he predicted.

Internationally, the Trump presidency gives China an opportunity to take leadership, especially if the U.S. is seen to be polarized, weakened, and in crisis. “China will have the opportunity to step in if there are trade wars,” Mr. Xie, an authority on contemporary China and Chinese society, said. “China will play its economic game carefully. They see Trump as an easy opponent to play with.”

The Middle East

Near Eastern Studies professor Bernard Haykel cited “a lot of confusion in the Middle East about what the Trump presidency means,” and he warned that this is “a period of great flux,” with the potential for “more bloodshed, more displaced people, more refugees.”

Emphasizing the huge American military presence in the region, Mr. Haykel contended that Saudi Arabia and Iran are at war throughout the Middle East, and “it is not clear where Trump stands. Does he want to side with Putin, or is he anti-Iran? The two are not reconcilable.”

The U.S. is providing air cover to Shiites in Iraq and Syria and, according to Mr. Haykel, “collusion and collaboration with Iran, pursued in line with the nuclear agreement with Iran, is fairly explicit. The Suunis hope that Trump will change this.” His apparent connection with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his expressed opposition to the Iran nuclear agreement have left Middle East experts wondering if he will side with Saudi Arabia or stick closer to Obama policy and support Iran and its Shiite allies.

Africa

“Africa to Trump is like the ghetto,” stated anthropology department chair Carolyn Rouse. “He probably can’t name six countries in Africa. It’s not on his radar. I don’t think he’ll visit it, and that may be a good thing.” She noted that Africa has been busy making alliances with China and other Asian nations.

Ms. Rouse, also director of the program in African studies, commented that “all Africa understands the racism,” and fears how that might be manifested in foreign policy, but she expressed hope that “this is an opportunity to push back on magical thinking, neo-liberalism, and the liberal and conservative fantasies.” She mentioned that the election and the Trump presidency would be “a challenge to us to stop living in a fantasy about poverty and power” throughout the world.

Global Governance

Striking a somewhat more positive note, historian Jeremy Adelman questioned, “Are we in a crisis or are these the growing pains of globalization?” He pointed out that the American model, initiated in 1945, had lived out its life span and was unsustainable, that increasing numbers of people had been excluded from the model and that disenchantment had been expressed in a variety of ways. “This may be a good thing,” he said, “because the kick in the pants from Brexit, from the election of Donald Trump, is exactly what we needed to reset the system of global governance in response to 21st century challenges.”

Ms. Davis also presented a more hopeful view of the Trump effect, describing the president-elect as a “leader who adjusts to circumstances. Perhaps in office Donald Trump will be very different from what we’ve seen on the campaign trail.” A professor in the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs as well as the politics department, Ms. Davis, questioned whether Mr. Trump could “go in and negotiate a better deal” on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which he has promised to abolish.

Warning of widespread trade wars if Mr. Trump follows through on his rhetoric, Ms. Davis stated, “the trade war scenario is quite grim. He will not just be ripping up trade agreements, but also severing U.S. alliances. We have to worry about uncertainty and instability in East Asia.”

Latin America

Deborah Yashar, politics professor and editor of World Politics, emphasized the “moment of tremendous uncertainty in Latin America, amplified by the Trump election.” She mentioned particular concerns and “enormous fear,” in Mexico, in particular, which has been demonized “as a scapegoat for all things evil.”

The political precedents, however, Ms. Yashar noted, “were perhaps the most important factor of all.” Among the precedents raising high levels of apprehension, she cited race-based populism, political extremism, the corruptions of the business-political connection, declining trust in democratic institutions, and the undermining of respect for civil liberties.